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It says here the Ottawa Senators can be a playoff contender this NHL season.
At worst, they will be a better team — I have no doubt about it.
A busy off-season with significant subtractions and need-fitting additions might be what’s needed to push this team up the standings. To find a path to the playoffs, the Senators have to leapfrog other NHL Eastern Conference teams — a lot of them. Back to that later.
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Let’s first talk about the past, the reign of error.
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The problem with the Senators, as we’ve learned, is there are always maybes. For too long, there were hollow promises and way too many missteps.
This is a team that so badly botched a trade of Evgenii Dadonov to the Vegas Golden Knights in 2021 that the NHL, following a lengthy investigation, ordered the Senators to forfeit a first-round draft pick.
No matter how you frame it, the Mark Stone-for-Erik Brannstrom trade was mind-numbingly bad.
A bit more than a year ago, the Senators signed goalie Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year, $20-million contract, then found out he couldn’t stop the puck.
The Senators gave up a lot to get Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun, then dealt each of them for less.
This is a team that too often has had its pocket picked in trades, a team that was torn apart by knee-jerk reactions, bad management, bad ownership and underperforming players.
Remember that five-year all-in run of “unparalleled success” promised by late owner Eugene Melnyk? Yeah, that was supposed to begin three years ago. That 2021-22 season, Melnyk was boasting about: A disaster. The Senators finished with 73 points, a whopping 27 points out of the playoffs.
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In 2022-23, the Senators finished just six points out.
Close? On the brink, right?
Not so much. Ottawa was the seventh-worst team in the NHL last season and, with 78 points, they finished 13 points out of a playoff spot.
Let’s move on from the past and shift the emphasis to now.
The tricky part for the Senators is navigating past teams above them and finding a way into the Top 8, the criteria needed to advance to the post-season.
Will any of the New York Rangers, Carolina, Florida, Boston, Tampa or Toronto slide out of the Top 8? Very unlikely.
Will the New York Islanders or Washington drop? Maybe. If anything, I’d bet the aging Capitals miss.
I’d bet New Jersey, coming off a disappointing 13th in the East (three points and one spot ahead of the Senators), is a playoff team.
That, in my books, leaves one playoff spot open.
Does Pittsburgh continue to fall as its stars age? Yes.
What about rising teams like Detroit, Buffalo and Philadelphia? Do they take another step ahead? Likely. Are they better than the Senators? I don’t think so.
Yes, playoffs are possible.
And, here’s why.
1. THE PUCK STOPS HERE
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It can’t be emphasized enough that goaltending has been a problem.
Korpisalo struggled. As the starting goalie, he put up an alarmingly poor 3.27 goals-against average. His backup, Anton Forsberg, was at 3.21. The solution: Send Korpisalo to Boston in a trade for Linus Ullmark. In Boston’s season-opener Tuesday, Korpisalo coughed up six goals.
Ullmark, who Wednesday signed a four-year contract extension that will keep him in Ottawa through the 2028-29 season (a very team-friendly term), should make a huge difference.
He has plenty of personality, a bit of swagger and has shown he can keep the puck out of the net. He had a 2.55 goals-against last year as a Bruin, it was 1.89 the season before. The previous time he had a GAA of more than 2.70 was in 2018-19 in Buffalo.
If the Senators leap ahead, the 31-year-old will play a big part.
2. THE DEFENCE RESTS
On paper, the Senators’ defence of a year ago looked decent enough. Sometimes addition by subtraction is a good thing.
Jake Sanderson is becoming elite. Thomas Chabot is capable offensively, but needs to stay healthy. If he can get in more than 70 games, he could put up between 40-50 points.
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Artem Zub is a steadying force. Newcomer Nick Jensen isn’t flashy, but he is a right-shot defenceman, striking more of a balance hockey people say is a big deal.
Chychrun, sent to Washington for Jensen, had 41 points last season, but when you watch him, you expect more.
Erik Brannstrom, another left shot, is gone and that’s a good thing for the defence. Tyler Kleven will get a chance to show what he can do.
3. SOMETHING SPECIAL
Special teams were horrible last year. The penalty-kill unit was fourth-worst in the NHL (ahead of only Minnesota, Anaheim and the Islanders), at a 75.1% efficiency rate. Consider Carolina had an 86.4% kill rate.
The power play was ranked 24th at 18% (Tampa led at 28.6%). Look for Tim Stutzle to elevate his game on the power play and for the penalty kill to be tighter with a goalie that can make the tough saves.
4. NEW BLOOD
The new voice behind the bench belongs to head coach Travis Green. The team had gotten stale under DJ Smith, who was fired with his team struggling in December. Jacques Martin finished the season as the interim coach.
Green worked his players harder in training camp, sending a message there will be no nonsense, no easy ways out.
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After firing Pierre Dorion early last November, Steve Staios enters his second season as the GM, but much of last year was spent observing and learning on the job.
It’s hard to be critical of much Staios has done. Instead of throwing stuff at the wall and hoping something sticks, his moves have been measured. The Senators added effective role players in forwards David Perron, Michael Amadio, Nick Cousins and Noah Gregor.
5. OWNING UP TO IT
Do I believe the Senators will soon be a playoff contender? Yes. The reason I believe they’ve turned the corner is tied to Michael Andlauer, who took over ownership of the Senators a year ago. He’s a breath of fresh air for the team and community. You get the feeling things will be done right. There’s optimism. Finally.
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