The Ministry of Finance and Economic Management (MFEM) is forecasting real GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 2.7 per cent for the 2025- 2026 financial year, followed by an annual growth of around 3.0 per cent in the outer years.
According to MFEM, the economic impact of COVID-19 is “now firmly in the rear-vision mirror and our economy continues to perform strongly”.
“For the year ended June 2025, real GDP is estimated to have grown by 11.6 per cent, reaching around $600 million,” the Ministry said in a statement.
“This means we have met and exceeded the Economic Recovery Plan target of $550 million, confirming that the economic scars of COVID-19 are largely behind us.
“We are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025/26, followed by annual growth of around 3.0% in the outer years.”
The Ministry further states that record visitor arrivals to the Cook Islands with the additional Sydney flights and the boost from the 2025 Te Maeva Nui 60th anniversary celebrations played a central role for economic recovery.
According to the Appropriation Budget book of 2025-2026, MFEM states that a fiscal surplus of 5.0 per cent of GDP was reported for 2024/25, “reflecting stronger-than-expected revenue relative to Government expenditure”.
“Economic conditions over the medium-term are expected to remain favourable, with updated forecasts indicating stronger GDP growth than previously estimated at the time of the Budget.
“GDP for 2025/26 is now projected to be $748.6 million and it is expected to increase to $834.6 million by 2028/29.”
Earlier, Cook Islands News reported that Prime Minister Mark Brown was optimistic that the country could achieve a billion-dollar economy within the next five years, provided current economic growth remains consistent.
“That’s five years away, and if we look at the projections, current growth rates, if we maintain 6 per cent, we’ll be getting close to that figure (a billion-dollar economy),” Brown said. “But tourism alone cannot push us to where we need to go.”
Brown maintained that diversification remains essential, noting that the seabed minerals programme represents the country’s most significant opportunity.
