When climatologist Ahmed Shabin wrote for us in June, El Niño was a probability. It is now confirmed, strengthening, and forecast to peak between November and January – possibly among the strongest events since 1950.
For the Maldives, the risk to reefs doesn’t arrive with the peak. In both 1998 and 2016, mass bleaching struck in the warm season that followed, which points to roughly March to May 2027. That leaves months of lead time.
Two things make this event different from the ones before it. Scientists concluded in December that warm-water reefs have already crossed their thermal tipping point, so the heat will arrive on a system with less left to give.
Our explainer on the timeline, the record and what to watch: https://maldivesindependent.com/explainer/el-nio-is-here-what-it-means-for-maldivian-reefs-66d4


