The coercive repatriation of Burundian refugees risks reproducing cycles of displacement ahead of Burundi’s 2027 elections.
Since December 2025, tens of thousands of Burundian refugees in Tanzania have returned to Burundi, mainly from Nduta camp, which closed in April. Most had fled Burundi after former president Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek a third term triggered violent protests in 2015, followed by a failed coup and repression.
The returns accelerated after November 2025 when the Tanzania-Burundi-United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) tripartite commission agreed to close Nduta and Nyarugusu camps by mid-2026, affecting about 142 000 Burundian refugees.
Keep up with the latest headlines on WhatsApp | LinkedIn
Refugees, humanitarian organisations and civil society organisations (CSOs) have documented intimidation by Tanzanian police against refugees. In Burundi, the arbitrary arrests and enforced disappearances of civilians heighten refugees’ fears for their safety. Members or supporters of Burundi’s political opposition are especially worried about persecution should they return.
The timing of this repatriation is not politically neutral. Burundi’s next presidential elections are scheduled for 2027, and displacement and refugee returns intersect uncomfortably with electoral dynamics. Before the 2020 polls, Burundi’s government promoted the return of refugees, opposition leaders and CSO leaders to legitimise the electoral process. State repression weakened domestic political opposition and helped produce polls without open protest.
Since 2017, and with renewed momentum after 2020, the Tanzania-Burundi-UNHCR commission has met annually to evaluate refugees’ living conditions in Tanzania and to deliberate on ways to repatriate with dignity.
Roughly 184 000 refugees had been sent home by November 2025. Three factors drove these increased returns. First, Burundi’s efforts to promote repatriation as evidence of domestic stability. Second, the UNHCR’s shift from facilitating to actively promoting voluntary returns. Third, international funding shortfalls that came on the back of Tanzania’s restrictive refugee policy, which features strict encampment measures and limited livelihood opportunities.
Burundians have a long history of forced exile and repatriation processes, some more successful than others. Since independence in 1962, the country has experienced repeated episodes of violence and civil war, the most recent being the 2015 election-related crisis. Each generated new refugee outflows, mostly to Tanzania but also to Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
These movements have been shaped by political violence, ethnic tensions, repression, economic hardship and climate-related disasters like floods and landslides, which have left psycho-social scars.
The 2015 political crisis alone displaced over 400 000 to neighbouring countries, mostly Tanzania. Many were former refugees who had returned, only to be displaced again. This underscores the cyclical nature of displacement and the fragility of past processes that prioritised refugee numbers over the conditions of repatriation.
In 2012, Tanzania revoked the refugee status of post-1993 Burundian refugees, forcing around 34 000 to return to Burundi, often without adequate reintegration support and sometimes despite pending resettlement files. This fostered mistrust of repatriation.
Alternative solutions simultaneously gained appeal. Resettlement programmes in the 2000s enabled the relocation of several families to the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden and elsewhere. In 2014, Tanzania offered naturalisation to roughly 162 000 pre-1993 Burundian refugees.
For current returnees, conditions awaiting them in Burundi don’t inspire confidence. Exile has lasted generations, and some young adults born in Tanzanian camps have never known Burundi. Others experienced the country briefly before being forced to flee again. For them, ‘return’ means going to an unknown country – a place that has never been theirs. Memories and anticipation of further deterioration in living conditions reinforce their fears.
The structural problem of long-term aid dependency is rarely acknowledged in repatriation discussions. For refugees who have spent decades, in some cases their entire lives, relying on humanitarian assistance, returning to Burundi without meaningful livelihood support represents potential destitution rather than a solution.
Restricted from working and lacking access to adequate vocational training in Tanzanian camps, many have never acquired the means to provide for their families independently. This is particularly hard in Burundi, one of the world’s poorest countries, where limited income-generating opportunities, unresolved land disputes, political instability and institutional weaknesses constrain development.
The accelerated return process from Tanzania also coincided with a December 2025 influx of Congolese refugees into Burundi, fleeing the war in eastern DRC. These refugees would strain the already limited local resources and response capacities.
Another challenge is the underfunding of repatriation and reintegration support, which consists of a one-off US$150 payment without access to housing, income-generating opportunities, or basic services.
In these conditions, returning to Burundi risks being simply another form of forced displacement. A rushed, coercive return process doesn’t just undermine reintegration. It could exacerbate community tensions, land conflicts and economic pressure, potentially reinforcing rather than resolving cycles of displacement, particularly ahead of the 2027 elections.
Repatriation must be genuinely voluntary, safe and dignified, not just a political or administrative target. This requires three interventions.
First, coercive practices must be independently monitored and condemned, in line with the core non-refoulement principle of international refugee law. A robust protection monitoring mechanism is needed, with transparent reporting on post-return outcomes, including land disputes and renewed displacement.
Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters
Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox
Second, reintegration support must recognise the structural vulnerabilities that camp-based aid dependency has created. Donors, the UNHCR and the governments of Tanzania and Burundi must acknowledge that many returnees arrive without the skills or resources to independently build sustainable livelihoods. Long-term support, school fee assistance, vocational training, income-generating activities and access to microcredit could help them reintegrate.
Third, repatriation should not be presented as the only solution for those unwilling to return. Many Burundian refugees face a difficult choice between an unsafe return and an increasingly untenable stay.
Opening pathways for resettlement and local integration is not an alternative to repatriation – it is a necessary complement in a region devastated by decades of displacement. For returns to be truly voluntary, refugees need real options.
For permission to re-publish ISS Today articles, please email us. In South Africa, News24 has exclusive rights to republish ISS Today articles. In Nigeria, Premium Times has exclusive rights to republish ISS Today articles.
Tatien Nkeshimana, Research Officer, Conflict Prevention, Management and Peacebuilding in the Great Lakes Region, ISS
Bram Verelst, Senior Researcher, Conflict Prevention, Management and Peacebuilding in the Great Lakes Region, ISS
