Commodity prices are set to rise by 23% in 2026, driven by conflict in the Middle East, disrupted grain shipments, El Niño and depleted oil stocks, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The report revealed that the conflict in the Middle East has drawn down oil inventories and is expected to push energy prices to a four-year high. Energy prices are projected to rise by 32%, reversing three years of declines, before moderating in 2027. Brent crude is forecast to average US$91 per barrel and ease to US$79 in 2027.
Food commodity prices are expected to increase by approximately10% and another 7% in 2027 as conflict in the Middle East escalates, high fuel and fertiliser prices, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a very strong El Niño threaten harvests and increase agricultural costs, which will further push more people into extreme poverty.
The Outlook highlighted that in an adverse scenario, these pressures could push Brent crude to average US$105 a barrel in 2027 and food commodity prices to be 12% higher than expected in the baseline forecast.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group stated that “Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth. The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens.”
Meanwhile, global oil supply will experience its largest drop in over four decades outside the 2020 global recession, falling by 5.2%. Consumption is expected to decline by 2.5%, the third-largest annual contraction on record, after 2020 and 1980.
Fertiliser prices are set to rise by 14% in 2026, after a surge in urea prices early in the year that has since eased, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Metals prices are set to rise by 25% as prices of aluminium, copper and tin all hit record highs, and to decline by 3% in 2027. According to the Outlook, these gains reflect strong demand from investments in renewable energy electric vehicles, and data centres, together with supply disruptions this year. Additionally, precious metals prices are forecast to increase by 40% as demand for safe-haven assets remains elevated amid geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
