The landslide electoral result of April 12 will likely bring major changes to the Hungarian economy, but the effects may well not be visible for another one or two years. As ever for such an open economy, much will also depend on developments in the international markets. Inflation still influences prices and wage demands.
The recent World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund projects that Hungary’s GDP growth will reach 1.7% in 2026 and 2% next year. The IMF puts average annual inflation at 3.8% in 2026, slowing, but not by much, to 3.5% in 2027. The unemployment rate will also improve, according to the»IMF, falling from 4.2% to 4% in 2027.
The figures released by the Hungarian economic research institute Kopint-Tárki are slightly more optimistic. They expect inflation to average 3.5% this year, although the institute’s head, Éva Palócz, warned that inflation risks are increasing. Still, Kopint-Tárki’s GDP growth outlook is better than the IMF’s, at 2% this year.
While governments usually tend to ignore independent forecasts, they are more concerned about rating agencies. A recent analysis by Fitch says that the new government faces serious macroeconomic challenges: weak growth, a high budget deficit, and rising public debt, although the two-thirds victory could ease EU tensions and reduce institutional conflict.
Fitch’s GDP growth forecast for this year is in line with Kopint-Tárki’s, at 2%, rising to 2.4% next year. It stresses that the new government must present a credible medium-term fiscal plan and rebuild policy credibility to unlock frozen EU funds. The new cabinet will have roughly one month to convince Fitch, which is slated to review its rating for Hungary in early June.
Where do Hungarian employees stand now in terms of income? According to the latest data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH), the average gross wage in Hungary rose 9.7% year-on-year to HUF 725,500 (about EUR 1,934) in February. Net wages rose faster, climbing 12% to HUF 509,200 (EUR 1,358) because of a bigger tax allowance for families raising children and the extension of personal income tax exemptions to more mothers, KSH said. Real wages rose 10.5%, calculated using a Consumer Price Index of 1.4%. The gross median wage increased by 11.8% to HUF 591,900 (EUR 1,578).
Are employees happy with this? According to a survey by personnel service provider Trenkwalder, despite inflation improving real wages by 4–5%, dissatisfaction with wages has climbed to 64%, up from 43% in 2023, 50% in 2024, and 56% last year. Some 81% of workers do not expect any further rise this year, and 58% believe their financial situation will worsen compared with 2025.
Although 59% of employees are considering changing jobs within a year, this is down from 66% in 2025; 62% say it is now harder to find work in their field than a year ago. The survey also found that 16% would switch jobs for a 10% rise, while 53% would move for a 20% increase. Trenkwalder said fewer than half (48%) of private-sector employees received a pay rise in 2026, and 90% of them saw increases of less than 10%.
Rises Implemented or Scheduled
Other surveys contradict that. HR solutions provider Jobtain HR found that 84% of Hungarian companies have already implemented or scheduled wage increases for 2026, with the most common adjustment in the 3–5% range, while 28% plan higher rises of 6–9%.
Double-digit increases are rare, and 60% of HR leaders say inflation is the primary driver of pay decisions, followed by retention pressures at 43%. Employers report strong labor-market wage pressure, with 70% describing it as high or critical.
Cafeteria benefits remain largely unchanged. Some 67% of companies did not raise their 2026 budget, and only 16% increased it. Travel support, at 43%, and sports or cultural program subsidies (37%) are common, but firms increasingly view cafeteria benefits as a supplementary tool rather than a core retention driver, Jobtain HR says.
For years, Hungarian companies have struggled to find skilled blue-collar workers. As seen above, employee satisfaction is driven by salaries, but that alone is not enough.
“The most important market lesson of 2025 is that, in the competition for blue-collar labor, wage levels alone no longer guarantee a sustainable advantage,” notes Viktor Göltl, managing director of HR service provider WHC Group. “For long-term business predictability, it has become essential to integrate a transparent and agile recruitment process, predictable workforce organizations, as well as tailored retention and internal development programs,” he says.
“In 2026, those organizations that move beyond mere headcount management and establish their operational stability through conscious human capital management and the continuous training of their skilled workforce may prove sustainably successful,” Göltl adds.
WHC Group expects a moderation in wage dynamics this year, with earnings typically growing at a single-digit rate. While movement in semi-skilled positions will be driven primarily by adjustments to the statutory minimum wage and the guaranteed wage minimum, in skilled positions, experience and specialized competencies will give candidates strong bargaining power.
Deepening Labor Shortage?
The structural labor shortage will persist in industrial production, logistics, construction, and hospitality, and may be further deepened by the natural demographic turnover of the workforce, with the retirement of experienced generations and limited replacement capacity, WHC says.
Building materials maker Mapei confirms the labor shortage in the construction sector. On average, a customer has to wait two months for a contractor to begin construction, according to a national survey conducted by Mapei among construction industry professionals.
“Although the waiting time has increased by three days compared with a year earlier, the 56-day average is still acceptable; it roughly reflects the time a professional needs to take on a new job. At the same time, the shortage of skilled workers varies significantly across different parts of the country, mainly due to the regional concentration of investments and the local supply of labor,” says Béla Markovich, managing director of Mapei Kft.
The survey found the longest waiting time in the southeastern region of Hungary, at 65 days, driven by industrial investments and construction demand. Moving north, customers need to wait much less, at 49 days on average.
According to the survey, more than half of contractors (56%) plan to raise their prices, with the average planned increase around 10%. However, according to Markovich, demand trends and intensifying market competition limit the actual implementation of price increases, meaning real price hikes usually fall short of planned ones. This was also the case last year: professionals planned an average increase of 14%, while the actual rise was only 1%.
“Companies’ costs are continuously increasing, but market competition and customers’ price sensitivity often prevent the full cost increase from being passed on in service fees,” Markovich explains.
The main driver behind price increases is rising costs: 38% of professionals cited inflation and the general increase in the cost of living as the primary reason. Higher business expenses (15%) and rising construction material prices (11%) also play a significant role in pushing up service fees.
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of April 24, 2026.
