But here we are in Central and Eastern Europe, and how much of what he says and does genuinely impacts us? There would undoubtedly be some form of an economic peace dividend from an end to the war in Ukraine (not to mention a real human benefit for the citizens and soldiers of that country and Russia), but there is still no clarity on how we get there.
At the time of writing, the administration is not yet three weeks in office, but that lack of detail is true of many Trump policies. Take the latest, which seems to apply a real estate mentality to the intractable problem of peace in the Middle East. The president has suggested, seemingly in earnest, that the States take over Gaza, relocate its population, demine and remove unexploded ordinance, flatten whatever is left and build the “Riviera of the Middle East.” No mention of where the Gazans would go, who would authorize this redevelopment project, or what might happen to the two-state solution. Peace in the Middle East would benefit the entire planet. Whether this plan gets us any nearer that (presumably not, since Egypt, the Jordanians, the Palestinians and, perhaps most importantly, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have all rejected it), it doesn’t affect Hungary directly.
But closer to home, there is something that certainly would impact us here. Although we know tariffs will come the way of the European Union “pretty soon,” America’s Disruptor-in-chief has not yet made it clear exactly when or on what. The president has said, “It will definitely happen […] because they’ve really taken advantage of us” and “treated us so terribly.” The threat of import taxes has already produced results for America in Columbia, Canada and Mexico. It’s not clear what Trump would want from the EU. Greenland? A balance in bilateral trade? The Hungarian Government’s response to date seems to have been to lay blame for what is to come at the door of the European Union. “Maybe European politicians shouldn’t have leveled base accusations and criticisms at the new president of the United States,” said Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó. “Due to the failures and ineptitude of the EC in the past five years, the U.S. finds it easy to introduce tariffs against the EU.”
However, there is little or no mention of the fact that, given the EU trades as a single block, tariffs levied against the Union will also hit Hungary, no matter how good the relationship between Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and President Trump is. Perhaps that is what lies behind an idea Szijjártó floated in recent days: “Unless Europe wants to lose the global economic competition for good, economic policy must be placed into the hands of member states,” he said, adding, “It’s time to realize that the economy can be managed much better at a member state level.” Either way, it seems we are, once again, living through the Chinese curse of “interesting times.”
Robin Marshall
Editor-in-chief
This editorial was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of February 7, 2025.