(CNS): A very wet January with several cold fronts followed by one of the coldest Februarys in 40 years made this year’s dry season a lot cooler than average on Grand Cayman, according to data released by the Cayman Islands National Weather Service. However, in April, the temperature climbed and rainfall decreased to well below the current annual average. The temperature has continued to rise this month, ahead of the summer months, which are expected to be very dry and hot in the region.
The CINWS has issued a heatwave forecast for this summer and warns that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to exceed climate averages and persist for days at a time. Frequent and prolonged bouts of heat are anticipated, with little night relief, posing public health concerns, increasing water and energy demand, and presenting challenges for farmers.
During this dry season, there were eight cold fronts, beginning in December, when 12.5 inches of rain fell on Grand Cayman. Rainfall associated with cold fronts during the season accounted for 40% of the rain during the four-month period.
But as the ENSO conditions transitioned from a neutral position to the anticipated El Niño phase, drier conditions developed toward the end of the season, and April was much drier than average.
The cold fronts brought cooler-than-average temperatures, making it one of the coolest dry seasons in more than a decade. January recorded the highest frequency of cold front passages, but by February, colder air masses over the United States resulted in more pronounced cooling when cold fronts reached the Cayman Islands.
Monthly maximum temperatures remained near to slightly above-average throughout the season with minimum temperatures generally above average. However, February recorded 2.5° below its average minimum temperature due to the passage of a strong cold front, with temperatures dropping as low as 65.5°F. February was the coolest month of the season and the coolest average for 40 years, while April was the warmest.
Cayman Brac was slightly wetter than last year, with total rainfall below the climatological average but above the previous dry-season total of 3.8 inches. The highest frequency of cold fronts was in January, while April was the wettest month of the season on the Sister Islands.
As the weather becomes harder to predict, mostly due to climate change, Cayman is likely to have a very hot and dry summer. Storm predictions are lower than average this year for the Atlantic Season due to the emergence of an El Niño phase.
