El Niño is developing and is expected to persist through the rest of 2026. But for the Maldives, the real question is what happens next.
The country’s worst ecological crises have not been driven by El Niño alone. They occurred when El Niño coincided with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern that warms waters around the Maldives and amplifies impacts on reefs, fisheries, mangroves and coastlines.
In 1998, that combination bleached up to 90% of Maldivian reefs. In 2016, more than 70% of reefs suffered severe damage. More recently, the 2023-24 global bleaching event caused significant coral mortality across parts of the country.
The good news is that climate scientists are not sounding an alarm after the fact. The Maldives has a window of several months before the effects are likely to be felt locally, giving communities, fisheries operators, developers and policymakers time to prepare.
We break down what El Niño is, why the Indian Ocean Dipole matters just as much, and what the coming months could mean for the Maldives. Read more: https://maldivesindependent.com/environment/el-nio-is-coming-heres-what-it-means-for-the-maldives-2875
