By Abdisalam Ali Farah (Biligsey)
The recognition of Somaliland by the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu represents a deeply destabilizing development with potentially catastrophic consequences—not only for Somaliland itself, but for Somalia as a whole and the wider Horn of Africa.
Far from bringing legitimacy or stability, such recognition risks igniting internal conflict, regional proxy wars, and the fragmentation of the Somali nation at a time when it is already dangerously fragile.
1. Internal Destabilization of Somaliland
First and foremost, recognition by Israel could have grave internal consequences for Somaliland itself. Somaliland society is not politically or socially monolithic, and many Somalilanders strongly oppose alignment or recognition linked to Israel. This opposition is rooted in religious convictions, political ideology, and—most critically—clan dynamics.
Such a move risks deepening political schisms and provoking inter-clan tensions that could escalate into open conflict. Rather than consolidating Somaliland’s internal cohesion, recognition could fracture it, undermining the very stability its leaders claim to uphold.
2. Risk of Proxy Wars and Militarization
Recognition could also transform Somaliland into a frontline in regional and international proxy conflicts. The Horn of Africa is already highly militarized, and the involvement of Israel—given its ongoing regional confrontations—could make Somaliland a legitimate target for hostile actors.
A particularly dangerous scenario involves the Houthis of Yemen, who are staunch enemies of Israel and have demonstrated long-range missile capabilities. A single missile strike on Berbera Port, Somaliland’s economic lifeline, would have devastating consequences: immediate economic paralysis, mass panic among civilians, and long-term damage to livelihoods. Such an event would not merely be symbolic—it would be catastrophic.
3. Alienation from the Arab and Islamic Worlds
Somaliland’s recognition by Israel would almost certainly provoke strong backlash from the Arab world, the Islamic world, and many international actors already horrified by the scale of destruction and civilian deaths caused by Netanyahu’s government.
This recognition is widely seen as premature, unilateral, and politically reckless. Already, many Somali political actors and civil society groups have voiced strong opposition to what they regard as an ill-considered decision by President Abdirahman Irro—one that risks isolating Somaliland diplomatically rather than legitimizing it.
4. Triggering the Dissolution of Somalia Proper
Perhaps the most alarming consequence is the precedent such recognition could set for the complete disintegration of Somalia. Several Federal Member States—particularly Puntland and Jubaland—are already in open political conflict with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration.
The Mogadishu government is widely accused of:
1) Systemic corruption on an unprecedented scale
2) Escalation of tribalism/Clanism to a new level
3) Centralization of power
4) Constitutional manipulation for political survival
If Somaliland’s recognition proceeds unchecked, it may embolden other regions to pursue unilateral paths, accelerating Somalia’s fragmentation and pushing the country toward irreversible collapse.
5. Strategic Geography and the Risk of a New “Scramble for Somalia”
Somalia occupies one of the most strategic locations on Earth. Nearly 25 percent of global trade passes through the Gulf of Aden, making Somalia’s coastline a focal point for global powers. In a context of unresolved clan conflicts, weak governance, and external interference, Somalia risks becoming the stage for a modern “scramble for Somalia.”
The white star on the Somali flag, symbolizing the historic division of the Somali people into five regions, serves as a stark reminder of colonial fragmentation—one that could be repeated under new guises.
6. Failed Leadership and the Need for National Rescue
At the heart of this unfolding tragedy lies failed leadership in Mogadishu. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has:
1) Unilaterally altered the constitution to consolidate power
2) Called for elections lacking broad political acceptance
3) Presided over corruption scandals of historic magnitude
As a result, he has become one of the most unpopular presidents Somalia has ever produced. The nation now stands at the edge of political oblivion.
Conclusion: A Call for National Unity
To prevent total collapse, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must accept responsibility and resign before it is too late. In his place, Somalia urgently needs a National Unity Government, inclusive of all political factions, clans, and federal states.
Only through collective leadership, national reconciliation, and rejection of reckless foreign entanglements can Somalia be saved from fragmentation, proxy warfare, and the loss of its sovereignty.
Abdisalam Ali Farah (Biligsey)
Email: [email protected]
