It’s just the latest emergency meeting of European Union (EU) heads of state and government, following Sunday’s gathering in London hosted by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a couple of earlier ones called by French President Emmanuel Macron.
With the United States‘ military and financial support for Ukraine suspended and its commitment to European security unclear, the EU has no choice but to get real on improving security self-sufficiency.
Ursula von der Leyen wanted to underscore that things really are worse than ever, writing in a letter to EU leaders that the continent “faces a clear and present danger on a scale that none of us have seen in our adult lifetime. The future of a free and sovereign Ukraine — of a safe and prosperous Europe — is on the line.”
More money for military
She hopes the ReArm Europe plan removes some of the economic excuses for low defense budgets that governments have used in the past. One way the plan aims to do this is by allowing governments to break the rules governing their maximum debt-to-GDP ratio when it comes to defense spending. Von der Leyen suggests if every member country spent 1.5% more, it would amount to nearly 650 billion euros more for military investment over the next four years.
ReArm Europe would also create a new mechanism to provide €150 billion for loans backed by the common EU budget, a concept that has been controversial among some countries. This money, an EU official explained, could be tapped into by two or three member states working together, or two plus Ukraine. It’s aimed at joint purchases of large-scale equipment and capabilities, such as air and missile defense, drones and cyber preparedness, and especially areas where Europe is currently dependent on the US.
A senior EU official speaking Wednesday on condition of anonymity said the desired outcome of the summit is that leaders “indicate that those proposals should move forward very swiftly” to enable the EU to create its own credible defense.
Hungary-Slovakia hangup?
Hungary and Slovakia have signaled their traditional opposition to any moves to help Ukraine, with Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico even releasing a letter leading with that principle.
But there is room for optimistic interepretation in this letter that Fico won’t block EU actions that don’t force Slovakia to contribute. And the primary goal of the plan is for countries to have access to financing to scale up their own defense first.
Giuseppe Spatafora, a research analyst with the EU Institute for Security Studies, believes von der Leyen’s plan will be able to achieve unanimous approval, even if not immediately at the summit, because the stakes have finally gotten so high. He’s just released a study on how US abandonment of Europe could play out.
Spatafora says the fact that the package contains a range of options — borrowing more, spending on joint procurement, shifting money from cohesion funds to defense spending — “is a way of maximizing consensus.”
He also interprets the relatively sparse mention of Ukraine in the plan as purposeful, “to avoid vetoes by some member states.”
Even with countries that have been uncomfortable with the EU playing a bigger role in what is usually left to national governments or NATO, “you need to start with money,” Spatafora points out. “And the EU’s role will be most welcome if it provides additional resources, primarily money.”
Switch in Sweden, green light in Germany
Sweden has been among those countries reluctant to accept a larger EU role in, and common funding of, defense.
But Calle Hakansson, a researcher with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, says there’s been a “change of tone and urgency these last few days” following the deterioration of relations between Presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday, and the subsequent cut-off of US aid to Ukraine.
Now, Hakansson said, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told his parliament that he supports the ReArm Europe package in full, after other countries that previously had reservations, such as Finland, Denmark and Germany, changed their positions.
“Sweden didn’t want to be the last one standing,” Hakansson said. “This package has been developed for quite some time, but I think that the ambition probably was increased these past few weeks. There is a real kind of urgency and a real feeling that Europe could be left alone.”
Speaking of changed positions, just a few hours after von der Leyen unveiled her package of proposals, the likely next partners in a new German government led by expected chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that once in office, they intend to loosen Germany’s national brake on debt to allow for higher defense spending. Merz pledges €500 billion more for defense along with €500 billion more for infrastructure.
Jeremy Cliffe of the European Council on Foreign Relations called both the change in Germany and the “sheer fiscal firepower” it will unleash “mind-boggling.”
Opening a “new book”
As she left the UK-hosted meeting in London on Sunday, Ursula von der Leyen said she wanted to provide so much help for Ukraine that it could become a “steel porcupine” that could withstand attacks from the outside.
If EU countries maximize the new tools she’s offering to improve their own capabilities, the bloc itself will grow an important layer of self-defense.
“Is it enough for the future? Probably not,” said one senior EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. They welcomed the package and discouraged criticism of the first sums of money. “As a first step, I think it’s actually quite impressive.”
The EU official was even more emphatic about ReArm Europe’s significance.
“This is a turning of the page,” they said, “but I think we are now starting a new book and it’s called ‘Europe of defense.'”
Edited by: Carla Bleiker
