By Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Introduction:
President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Ahmed Madobe), the leader of Jubaland, has officially kicked off his election campaign. Known for his political savvy, Axmed Madobe has proven time and again that he knows how to navigate the complex and often contentious political environment of Somalia, especially when it comes to constitutional elections. His recent remarks suggest that his upcoming campaign will be heavily influenced by the political dynamics between Somalia’s federal government and the regional states. This provides a critical juncture for Somali politics, especially when considering the shifting positions of key figures like President Hassan Sheikh Mohamudand Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre.
Ahmed Madobe has long been seen as a leader who understands how to handle elections that may not necessarily align with the interests of Villa Somalia (the Somali Federal Government). His political experience and strategic thinking allow him to navigate these challenges with a keen sense of timing and opportunity. In this cycle, his campaign will be shaped not only by his ambitions but also by the ongoing political dynamics between Somalia’s federal leadership and the regional governments.
The Changing Stances of Hassan Sheikh and Hamza
The old adage “the swiftest horse can’t overtake a word once spoken” captures the importance of staying true to one’s principles—a sentiment that now echoes in Somalia’s political landscape. Historically, leaders like President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, along with key opposition figures such as President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Abdirahman Abdishakur, have publicly championed the autonomy of Somalia’s federal member states, especially in matters of election governance.
During the tenure of former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, both Hassan and Hamza were among his fiercest critics, accusing his administration of infringing on regional rights and calling for the independence of state elections, free from Mogadishu’s influence. Their stance was rooted in the belief that Somalia’s federal model should grant regional states the authority to elect their leaders autonomously, a view they shared broadly with other federalists and opposition figures at the time.
This advocacy for federalism was reaffirmed in a November 11, 2024 communiqué from members of Somalia’s Federal Parliament representing Jubaland. In their statement, the Jubaland representatives underscored their commitment to Somalia’s federal democratic structure, which they say is foundational to the country’s governance model. They cited Articles 1, 48, 50, 51, 120, and 121 of the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC), which enshrine federalism as the agreed constitutional framework.
Moreover, on November 16 the Jubaland MPs voiced opposition to recent amendments regarding the election law, Political Parties law and Election and Boundaries law proposed by the Federal Government, arguing that these changes undermine national unity and disrupt the delicate balance between the federal and regional powers because of the absence of consultation. They emphasized that the PFC remains the sole constitutional framework that all Somalis recognize, rejecting any divisive adjustments and that 1P1V is the best system provided its full infrastructure is readied before one sounds the horn. In the current environment political of Somalia, the author believes it is next to impossible to hold universal suffrage in Somalia proper with exception of Puntland Federal Member State.
This position calls into question President Hassan and PM Hamza, now in central government roles, will uphold their former commitments to federalism or yield to the pressures of consolidating federal power. Their response will be a significant indicator of the Federal Government’s respect for regional autonomy, a principle they once vocally supported in their opposition to Farmaajo’s centralizing policies.
However, with Hassan Sheikh and Hamza now at the helm of the federal government, political analysts are keen to see whether they will remember their former position on regional autonomy or shift towards a more centralized stance as the opposition heavy weights are still staunch supporters of President Ahmed Madoobe and true to their 2019 stand. This issue is especially pertinent given that they previously condemned federal interference in regional elections under Farmaajo’s administration.
Observers are left wondering: The evolving stance of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre raises critical questions about their commitment to upholding the autonomy they once defended under the Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC). Their recent actions regarding Jubaland’s electoral process—a process conducted in accordance with the PFC—represent a striking departure from their earlier positions. By labeling the elections as “illegal” and allegedly enlisting the Kenyan government to pressure Jubaland’s President, they appear to undermine the very framework they previously championed.
This contradiction has not gone unnoticed. Many Somalis are left questioning the integrity and consistency of their leadership. The apparent pivot from defending federalism to potentially consolidating power over regional elections could indicate a broader attempt to centralize authority at the expense of Somalia’s fragile federal structure. This shift risks alienating regional administrations and deepening mistrust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States.
Their pronouncements in the last two weeks, which contradict their previous stance on this issue, could have significant implications for Somalia’s political stability and the credibility of the Federal Government. This abrupt shift not only undermines their prior defense of federal principles but also risks to wear down trust between the Federal Government and Federal Member States. Such actions could exacerbate tensions, weaken Somalia’s fragile federal structure, and raise doubts about the government’s commitment to its stated principles.
As the political landscape in Somalia evolves, it’s likely that the positions of Hassan Sheikh and Hamza on the issue of federalism will be tested further as they now turned into the laughing stock of Somalia – citizens enjoy watching clips from 2019 and compare it with what the president preaches at the Presidential Mosque and in the same token PM Hamza’s yesterday rhetorics and his todays talk. If the federal government attempts to impose greater control over the elections of regional states, it would contradict the principles that Hassan and Hamza once espoused. Given their past rhetoric on this issue, there are questions as to whether they live in a parallel world. Political autonomy of regional states according to the constitution of the land will never allow for a gram of federal intervention in the electoral process. This situation will be closely watched by political observers, international community and the general public, as it could signify a shift in how the federal government views its relationship with regional authorities.
For President Ahmed Madobe, this period presents an ideal opportunity. With the federal government grappling with internal contradictions and the complex dynamics of federalism as Puntland jumped ship and the remaining three FMS are either controlled by Al Shabab or are in clan fighting with no prospect for resolution, Madobe sure will be able to position himself as a champion of regional autonomy and the federal model. His challenge will be to maintain his own political standing while also navigating the ever-changing landscape of Somali politics, including the foolhardy interference from the federal government.
The Stakes for Somalia’s Federal System
President Ahmed Madobe’s election campaign in Jubaland is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for Somalia’s federal system, with implications that go far beyond his state. This campaign will be closely watched by Somalia’s other federal states, as the approach taken by both the federal government and Jubaland could set lasting precedents for election autonomy and the balance of power within Somalia’s federal framework. A federal approach that respects the independence of regional states could reinforce confidence in Somalia’s fragile federal system, promoting stability and cooperation. On the other hand, if the federal government attempts to exert undue influence over regional elections such as illegally extending the term of office of FMS, it could strain Somalia’s federal structure and sow discord among other federal states.
Meanwhile, President Hassan’s tactics to coerce Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe into compliance have drawn sharp criticism. In a controversial move, the Federal Government halted the disbursement of budget support provided by the international community to Jubaland in the same way President Hassan holds back the development budget of Puntland. This punitive measure is seen as a deliberate attempt to weaken the regional administrations and force it to align with federal directives. Critics argue that such actions undermine the principles of federalism and disrupt essential services in Jubaland and Puntland, further alienating its leadership and population from the central government.
At stake in this ongoing political battle is more than just the future of individual politicians—it’s a fundamental test of Somalia’s federal system itself. Since the adoption of the federal model in 2012, following years of civil conflict, Somalia has wrestled with the critical question of how to balance power between the federal government and the regional states. The answer to this question will be a defining factor in Somalia’s future stability and governance.
President Ahmed Madobe’s campaign is, therefore, not only about his political survival but also a litmus test for Somalia’s federalism. If the federal government respects Jubaland’s autonomy and allows the election to proceed independently, it could help to solidify the role of regional governments and affirm the principles of federalism within the Somali state. Conversely, federal interference could set a dangerous precedent, undermining the confidence of regional states in Somalia’s federal structure. The outcome of this election, and the manner in which it is handled, will send a powerful signal to all of Somalia’s federal states regarding their autonomy and the strength of Somalia’s commitment to its federal principles.
The ongoing political battle over election autonomy is more than just about the fate of individual politicians. It is a fundamental test of Somalia’s federal system, which has been in place since the country’s civil war ended in 2012. The question of how much power should be vested in the federal government versus the regional states remains a critical issue for Somalia’s future.
The Positive Intervention of the International Community is absent
Over the past 12 years, the international community has invested heavily in support of Somalia’s quest to transform into a peaceful, unified country with a democratic government governed by the rule of law, rather than being ruled by the will of individuals imposed as law. There is a significant difference between the “rule of law” and “rule by law,” the latter being the arbitrary will of an individual enacted as law and that points at the face of President Hassan.
I am left wondering where the corrective actions of international community representatives have gone. Historically, it was the norm rather than the exception for the international community to step in positively during times of political crisis. I urge the international community, led by Mr. James Swan, RSG to intervene based on both Somalia’s federal provisional constitution and Federal Member States’ constitution, before Somalia reaches a point where it is “too late to correct.” The country is currently facing unprecedented levels of corruption and political disarray, which are steering it down a dangerous path.
Conclusion:
The unfolding political scenario in Somalia, particularly with President Ahmed Madobe’s election campaign in Jubaland, presents a critical moment in the ongoing experiment with federalism in the country. As Somalia navigates its complex and fragile political landscape, the stakes could not be higher for both the future of regional autonomy and the integrity of the federal system itself. President Madobe’s ability to maintain Jubaland’s independence while fending off pressures from the Federal Government will be a defining test not only for his political survival but also for the nation’s broader governance framework.
The shifting positions of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, who have seemingly abandoned their earlier commitments to regional autonomy, risk undermining the very foundation of Somalia’s federal structure. Their attempts to centralize power and exert undue influence over regional elections threaten to destabilize the delicate balance between the federal government and federal member states, further deepening the political crisis and eroding trust in the central leadership.
In this critical moment, the international community’s role becomes indispensable. Historically, the international community has intervened decisively to correct political imbalances and prevent Somalia from veering off course. With the country on the brink of political chaos, the international community, led by Special Representative James Swan, must act swiftly to ensure that Somalia’s federal framework is respected and that the integrity of the electoral process is preserved. Failure to do so could lead to further division and disillusionment, not just within Somalia’s political elites but also among its citizens, who are watching closely as their country teeters on the edge of uncertainty.
Ultimately, the outcome of this political struggle will shape the future trajectory of Somalia’s governance, with significant implications for the country’s unity, stability, and democratic development. Whether Somalia can hold true to its federal aspirations or succumb to the pressures of centralization will depend largely on the actions of its leaders, both within the country and from the international community. The coming months will reveal whether Somalia can emerge from this period of political turbulence with a renewed commitment to its federal principles or if it will fall deeper into the abyss of authoritarianism and political fragmentation.
Abdiqani Haji Abdi
Email: [email protected]
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