Fact-checking former minister Osita Chidoka’s claims on Nigeria’s 2025 budget, debt and policing
- Chidoka was correct about the pace of Nigeria’s population growth, increased debt repayments, police funding in South Africa, and Nigeria’s difficulties in weaning itself off commodity exports.
- However, he was off with claims about the growth of Nigeria’s budget, the country’s current indebtedness and palm oil imports.
- The former minister also missed the mark about police funding in both Nigeria and Egypt.
Well-known Nigerian politician, public servant and administrator Osita Chidoka is a sought-after voice on national issues.
In a January 2025 TV interview on Arise News, Chidoka, also a prominent opposition member and former aviation minister, made several claims following the president’s 2025 budget presentation.
We fact-checked them for accuracy.
Chidoka said he started the year depressed after hearing the budget for 2025.
He said that using an exchange rate of N1,600 to the dollar, the country’s projected spending amounts to US$31 billion.
Nigeria’s exchange rate: A complex landscape
In 2024, Nigeria unified its exchange rates, narrowing the gap between official and parallel rates.
However, differences remain. For instance, in November 2024, parliament set the 2025 budget exchange rate at N1,400 to the US dollar.
But weeks later, president Bola Tinubu announced N1,500 to the dollar while presenting the budget details in parliament. On the same day, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s official rate was N1,538 to the dollar, and by 21 January 2025, the parallel market rate had risen to N1,670/$.
Chidoka didn’t specify the source of his N1,600/$ exchange rate. However, when calculated using parliament’s rate of N1,400 to the dollar, the 2025 budget of N49.74 trillion is estimated at about $35.6 billion – and $33.16 billion based on what Tinubu presented to lawmakers and the budget office’s website – both higher than Chidoka’s claim.
Nigeria’s budget increased by 20.9% in dollar terms from 2014 to 2025, not 14% as he stated.
Chidoka argued that Nigeria’s 2025 budget failed to reflect population growth, which had outpaced budget increases over the past decade.
Nigeria’s population size is debated because there has not been an official census since 2006, with estimates varying among local and international authorities.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated the population at 176.4 million in 2014, rising to 216.7 million in 2022 – a 22.87% increase.
Prof Ndubisi Akanegbu, an economist at Nile University in northern Nigeria, said that using the US dollar to assess Nigeria’s budget growth relative to population growth is reasonable due to its stability, compared to the naira.
Akanegbu said that inflation and currency depreciation over the past decade make local currency comparisons difficult.
Chidioka said Nigeria’s budget deficit had tripled in 10 years, leading to higher debt repayments.
A budget deficit is when a government spends more than it takes in. Debt servicing is when a country pays the interest and principal on its domestic and international debt.
Olusegun Ajibola, a professor of monetary economics at Caleb University in Lagos, western Nigeria, said that a budget deficit meant a country had to rely on external sources to finance its budget.
“The implication of this is that it increases the debt burden, as the country must service both local and international debts. This reduces the capacity of the government to pursue other projects, as a significant portion of funds must be allocated to debt servicing,” Ajibola told Africa Check.
In 2014, Nigeria’s deficit was N960 billion, rising to N13.08 trillion naira in 2025 – a thirteenfold increase. In US dollar terms, the deficit rose from $6.03 billion in 2014 to $9.34 billion in 2025, an increase of 1.55 times (55%), much less than a threefold increase.
The minister’s claim of a tripling in budget deficit size is inaccurate.
What of debt servicing?
Nigeria allocated N712 billion ($4.45bn) to debt servicing in 2014, and N16.32 trillion ($11.66bn) in 2025.
While his budget deficit figure was inaccurate, Chidoka’s central claim was about an increase in debt repayment. So his claim is correct.
Chidoka claimed that his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), left a “clean balance sheet” when it left power in 2015, criticising the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for increasing Nigeria’s debt.
The PDP governed Nigeria from 1999 to 2015 and achieved a landmark debt relief deal in 2006. This agreement with the Paris Club, an informal group of official lenders, reduced Nigeria’s external debt by $30 billion, including an $18 billion write-off, after paying $12 billion in eligible debt.
While this deal cleared Nigeria’s Paris Club obligations, the country still owed $5 billion to multilateral and commercial creditors, meaning it was not completely debt-free.
In 2015, when the PDP handed over power, Nigeria’s external debt was N2.11 trillion ($10.3 billion), with a total public debt of N12.6 trillion ($63.8 billion).
By 2024, Nigeria’s external debt had risen to N63. 07 trillion (42.9 billion). Chidoka’s claim is incorrect.
Chidoka claimed that Nigeria’s 2025 budget allocated $798 million to the police.
However, according to the budget, a total of N1.2 trillion, equivalent to $857 million at the official exchange rate (N1400/dollar), has been earmarked for the police.
Earlier in his interview, Chidoka used an exchange rate of N1,600 to the dollar. This translates into about $750 million for the police.
His conversion is still lower than the actual amount stated in the budget.
Chidoka claimed that $47 million was allocated to the police as a capital vote.
Capital votes are funds allocated for long-term investments like infrastructure, equipment or projects that increase an organisation’s capacity, unlike recurrent expenditure, which covers day-to-day operating costs.
According to the budget, N76.6 billion has been allocated for police capital expenditure.
Using Chidoka’s proposed exchange rate of N1,600 to the dollar, the amount comes to $47.9 million. But the minister had sight of the official exchange rate when making his claim.
At the official exchange rate of N1,400/dollar, this is about $54.8 million.
Chidoka suggested that state governors could contribute to the police budget.
To back this up, he claimed that no governor in Nigeria received less than N3 billion annually as security votes.
Security votes are monthly funds given to the president, governors and local government chairpersons for urgent security needs.
They are controversial because they lack transparency, and limited public data makes it hard to verify how the funds are allocated or spent.
We reviewed the 2025 budgets of selected states across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, including Kogi, Bauchi, Kano, Anambra and Oyo. We only found security vote allocations in Bauchi’s budget, amounting to N7.5 billion.
No credible data or media reports confirmed the figures Chidoka mentioned.
Security votes should not be confidential because they were meant to ensure public safety, said Emma Chukwuemeka, a professor of public administration at Nnamdi Azikiwe University in Akwa Ibom, southeastern Nigeria.
Chidoka, advocating for increased police funding in Nigeria, claimed South Africa allocated $6 billion and Egypt $204 billion to their police forces. However, he did not specify the year for comparison, making verification difficult.
South Africa has not yet presented its 2025 budget. But the country allocated R113.6 billion ($6.04 billion) to the police in 2024, matching Chidoka’s claim.
Egypt’s 2025 budget does not specify allocations for policing.
A United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) report on Egypt’s 2023/24 budget shows EGP 105.6 billion ($2.10 billion) was allocated to “public order and security”, covering various services but not detailing the share for policing. In this context, Chidoka’s $204 billion figure seems highly inflated.
Chidoka claimed per capita police funding was $2 in Nigeria, $100 in South Africa and about $1,000 in Egypt.
According to South Africa’s official statistical agency, the country has a population of 63.02 million people. Its 2024 budget allocated R113.6 billion ($6.04 billion) to the police.
This results in a per capita police funding of approximately $97 at current exchange rates, close to Chidoka’s figure.
Egypt’s population is 107.25 million, according to its national statistics agency.
Based on Unicef’s figure of EGP105.6 billion ($2.1 billion) allocated to “public order and security”, per capita spending is around $19.6, far below Chidoka’s $1,000 claim.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates Nigeria’s 2024 population at 229.2 million.
With $857 million allocated to police in the budget, per capita funding is $3.74, higher than Chidoka’s $2 claim.
Obadiah Smah, a criminology professor at the National Open University of Nigeria in Abuja, said Nigeria, as Africa’s largest economy, should be able to better fund its police force.
He said the 2025 allocation was inadequate, but “if properly utilised, the allocation could change the narrative about police performance and improve Nigeria’s ranking among African police forces”.
In 1986, Nigeria’s former military head of state Gen Ibrahim Babangida introduced the structural adjustment programme (SAP) to diversify Nigeria’s economy, focusing on sectors like agro-processing, including cocoa processing.
According to a 1997 International Monetary Fund report, cocoa production grew during the SAP era, increasing from 154,000 tonnes annually (between 1981 and 1985) to 200,000 tonnes.
The report also notes that Nigeria exported cocoa products such as powder, butter, cake and paste during this period.
A World Bank report notes that in 1988, a refinancing and rediscounting facility, backed by the Central Bank of Nigeria, provided over N500 million to banks, mainly benefiting cocoa exporters.
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Other reforms, such as export insurance, financing guarantees and the removal of state-owned trading companies, also supported exporters.
According to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council, raw cocoa beans make up nearly 90% of Nigeria’s $804 million cocoa exports, while semi-processed products such as cocoa butter and cocoa paste contribute $67 million and $28 million, respectively.
A 2024 report from the Trade, Private Sector Development and Employment Facility, a European Commission programme, confirms that Nigeria exports smaller quantities of semi-processed cocoa products compared to raw cocoa beans.
According to the report, 70 to 80% of cocoa beans are exported raw, while 20-30% are processed into products like cocoa paste, butter, and powder for export and domestic use.
Akeem Tijani, a professor of agricultural economics at Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile-Ife, western Nigeria, confirmed that Nigeria mainly exported cocoa beans but also exported smaller amounts of semi-processed products.
Chidiko’s claim is accurate.
Chidoka said that Nigeria spent $660 million importing palm oil, despite its “rich palm oil heritage”.
We traced Chidoka’s claim to a June 2024 statement attributed to Alphonsus Inyang, chair of the National Palm Produce Association of Nigeria. However, Inyang’s figure was $600 million per year.
Nigeria is a major palm oil producer and has historically been one of the largest producers globally. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the country is the world’s fifth-largest palm oil producer, with Indonesia and Malaysia taking the top two spots.
Despite being a major producer, Nigeria imports large amounts of palm oil, which ranks as the 12th most imported product, according to the June 2024 NBS Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report.
The NBS data for the first quarter of 2024 shows that Nigeria imported crude palm oil worth N7.47 billion and non-edible palm oil fractions worth N5.15 billion, totalling N12.57 billion ($8.08 million). No palm oil import spending was recorded in the second quarter report.
Benjamin Ahmed, a professor of agricultural economics at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, said Nigeria was struggling to produce enough palm oil.
“Farmers in Nigeria are still using old seedlings instead of the new, higher-yielding varieties that could significantly boost production,” Ahmed told Africa Check.
He added that the government could help by making the new seedlings easier for farmers to obtain and by improving security so that farmers could get to the forests where they needed to farm.
