President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno and his ruling party, the Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS), have established a strong foothold in the Chadian political landscape following the recent parliamentary elections held in December.
These elections, notable for being the first parliamentary contest in Chad since 2011, have resulted in the MPS securing a significant majority, with provisional results indicating the party has won 124 out of a total of 188 seats in the National Assembly.
This outcome underscores the party’s dominance and suggests a continuation of Deby Itno’s leadership as he navigates the country’s complex political and social challenges.
The occurrence of elections in the country is a promising development, according to Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel Programme of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), which is close to the German conservative CDU party. Unlike the presidential election in April, the opposition did not take the December election seriously and called for a boycott.
The opposition parties suggested a preconceived outcome, resulting in low voter turnout. “There was no doubt that the ruling party would clearly win, just as there was no doubt that Deby won the presidential election. That was in the script,” Laessing said.
The attack on the presidential palace in N’Djamena on 8 January was not planned. All 18 attackers and two soldiers were killed. President Deby said it was an attempt on his life. The government described the attackers as “a mix of drug addicts and alcoholics from a poor neighborhood,” and quickly took control of the situation. DW talked to some people in the capital, N’Djamena, who doubt this official explanation. The motive of the attack, which took place hours after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited President Deby, remain unknown.
KAS expert Laessing believes it is unlikely that the attack was carried out by the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram. “The jihadists are mainly active in the Lake Chad region and do not carry out attacks as complex as the one on the presidential palace,” he said. “The attackers knew where to go and they were expected at the same time. I rather suspect that it is an intrigue within the presidential family or the clans in the palace.”
Tensions in the presidential palace
There have been tensions in Deby’s team for some time. The son and successor to President Idriss Deby had demoted his father’s old guard from the Zaghawa clan and promoted his followers instead.
At the end of November, Chad announced that it will end its defense agreement with France, its former colonial ruler. French troops must leave the country by 31 January. The Chadian military minister emphasized that this deadline is “non-negotiable” during a ceremony in Abeche on 11 January. France also returned a military base in the eastern town of Abeche to Chad.
Turning to the UAE
The old allies of the late President Deby senior were “traditionally very close to France,” according to Ulf Laessing. They see it as a major risk that Deby junior has terminated the military contract with the old ally and they are also extremely skeptical about the president’s new choice of partner.
Several former French colonies, including Niger, Mali, Senegal, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast have asked France to pull its troops out. New partners are stepping in to fill this gap. Along with Turkey and Russia, which is currently viewed as weakened after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Chad is now turning to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). According to reliable UN reports about eastern Chad, the UAE is providing weapons to its allies in Sudan, as noted by KAS expert Laessing.
We are talking about the RSF militia, a paramilitary Islamic group that is taking action against non-Arab tribes, including the Zaghawa clan. “If the RSF militia loses the war, it could well be that Zaghawa people will then try to take revenge on Deby,” Laessing added. “That could bring down the entire Deby system.”
In a highly publicized speech in Paris, French President Macron accused his West African allies of being ungrateful for France’s years of military involvement. “It is true that France helped Mali and some countries that had problems with the jihadists,” Pierrette Herzberger Fofana, former MEP for the German Green Party, told DW. But Fofana was not happy with Macron’s statements. “Doesn’t France have to thank Africa? For the veterans who gave their blood for Europe?” Fofana said, adding that a genuine partnership must always be based on equality.
Ejection or re-organisation?
According to Macron, the announced withdrawal is merely a re-organisation proposed by France itself. But François Djekombe, former spokesman for President Deby, contradicted Macron’s claims. “The French troops were driven out of Africa, whether we wanted it or not,” Djekombe told DW.
After the speech, President Deby himself spoke of “contempt for Africa,” saying that Macron’s comments revealed “an attitude from a bygone era.” He said Chad is mature and its security forces work well and autonomously.
Macron had questioned whether Deby should be president. KAS expert Laessing says Deby has always been wary of France and does not trust Macron. France is not popular in Chad and by ending the military contract, Deby has gained support from the public. However, the French have helped his father and predecessor in the past, such as when they bombed a rebel group coming from Libya in 2019.
The withdrawal of the French military creates a new problem. Several hundred Chadian workers who depend on jobs at the French bases are worried about losing their income. In December, they asked their government to help find other job options. Mohamed, who works at the military base in N’Djamena, said: “This is a shock for us. We have built our lives here, and now it’s all under threat.”
‘A risky change’
KAS expert Laessing viewed the changes happening in Chad as risky. He says that President Deby hopes to get drones from the UAE to replace French jets in fighting rebel attacks. However, it will take time to get the drones to Chad and train soldiers to use them. Laessing believes Chad is still very fragile and that it is difficult to manage without French soldiers in the short term.
Gondeu Ladiba, a professor at the University of N’Djamena, noted that the complicated relationship between Paris and N’Djamena may show us what to expect in the future. “I believe that this tumultuous relationship between Paris and N’Djamena is a sign of things to come for us,” said Ladiba, “because we don’t know whether France will leave for good or whether only some elements of its army will leave. There are so many grey areas.”
In November 2024, the Chad government stated that their decision does not change the historical friendship and relations with France. What this means in practical terms is still unclear.
Blaise Dariustone and Carole Assignon contributed to this report.
Edited by: Bouba Jalloh
