By Dayib Sh. Ahmed
The international community’s response to Somalia’s intensifying federal crisis has been insufficient and untimely, revealing a concerning disregard for the constitutional rights of Federal Member States to exercise autonomy in governing their affairs, as enshrined in the Provisional Federal Constitution and their respective state constitutions. On November 20, 2024, a joint statement was issued urging dialogue and restraint between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Jubaland State. However, this came too late to prevent significant hostility allowing tensions to escalate and leaving Somali citizens to suffer the consequences of heightened violence and instability. The statement’s omissions and contradictions expose a selective approach that prioritizes short-term stability over addressing systemic challenges undermining Somalia’s federal framework.
The exclusion of Puntland, a key federal member state, further diminishes the credibility of international efforts. This disregard alienates millions of Somalis whose voices are sidelined, reinforcing a pattern of superficial fixes that neglect deeper governance and inclusion issues. Favoring the FGS over regional autonomy perpetuates disadvantage in Puntland, Jubaland, and beyond. As the Somali proverb wisely observes, “a hyena does not change its spots, even if it moves to a different forest.” President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attempts to consolidate power under the guise of unity threaten Somalia’s fragile federal balance. Without addressing the root causes of centralization, hopes for peace and stability will remain elusive.
Puntland’s Exclusion and Selective Engagement.
The international community’s approach to Somalia’s federal crisis continues to trivialized. Puntland, the oldest federal member state and a steadfast champion of federalism since 1998. Puntland’s long-standing role as a stabilizing force and advocate for constitutional governance has been undermined by the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) repeated violations of federal principles. These actions have severed ties between Puntland and the FGS, deepening the mistrust that characterizes relations between federal and regional administrations. Ignoring Puntland’s contributions and grievances devalues its commitment to federalism and alienates millions of Somali citizens who view Puntland as a model of regional governance. This pattern of disregard is not limited to Puntland but extends to other federal member states, including Jubaland, South West State, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle. Jubaland, under President Ahmed Madobe, has worked to uphold its electoral sovereignty in alignment with Somalia’s federal framework, designed to empower member states and counterbalance central authoritarianism. Meanwhile, South West State, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle grapple with leadership crises marked by unconstitutional mandates, where leaders remain in power without legitimate elections.
The FGS’s persistent interference in these regions, including unconstitutional attempts to dictate or manipulate presidential terms, represents a direct assault on federal principles and undermines the very fabric of Somalia’s constitutional framework. These actions embody Lord Acton’s timeless observation: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, the FGS has increasingly pursued a centralizing agenda, seeking to consolidate authority under the pretext of unconstitutional change. In his quest to maintain power at any cost, Hassan has resorted to corrupting other leaders to extend their mandates, further destabilizing governance structures. This approach erodes trust in the federal system, jeopardizing Somalia’s prospects for sustainable peace and unity. By undermining the delicate balance of power between federal and regional governments, Hassan’s administration threatens the foundational principles of Somalia’s federal system. This erosion of federalism risks destroying trust among federal partners, exacerbating disunity, inflaming political polarization, and significantly heightening the risk of conflict.
The international community’s passive tolerance of the FGS’s overreach and disregard for constitutional mandates only compounds the crisis. By failing to challenge Mogadishu’s authoritarian drift, international actors risk enabling a trajectory toward centralized and oppressive governance. Autonomy for member states like Puntland, Jubaland, and others is not a privilege but a constitutional guarantee essential to maintaining Somalia’s federal stability. Protecting this autonomy is critical to preventing the collapse of federalism, safeguarding the nation’s unity, and ensuring the success of Somalia’s state-building agenda. Without a renewed commitment to federal principles and a rejection of centralizing authoritarianism, the FGS and the international community will continue to erode the fragile progress toward a peaceful and inclusive Somalia. Federal member states must be respected, and their constitutional rights upheld, to ensure that Somalia’s federal system survives the challenges of today and thrives in the future.
Limited Scope and Contradictions in the International Response.
The joint statement emphasized dialogue, restraint, and broad participation in electoral reforms but failed to address the root causes of tensions—the FGS’s unconstitutional overreach. By imposing electoral laws and manipulating federal institutions, the FGS has systematically undermined federal principles. Yet, the international community remains hesitant to hold it accountable, abandoning political stability priorities and neglecting the necessity for an equitable and strategic policy framework. This reluctance perpetuates dependency, allowing the FGS to sideline federalism and alienate regions like Puntland. Focusing narrowly on Jubaland, while ignoring similar grievances in other states, demonstrates a fragmented approach that prioritizes appearances over genuine resolution. Without equal engagement with all federal member states, international efforts will fail to address Somalia’s governance challenges.
To effectively address Somalia’s federal crisis, a multifaceted approach is essential. Inclusive dialogue must involve all federal member states, including Puntland, Jubaland, and other undervalued. Regions, in neutral and equitable discussions to rebuild trust and foster collaboration. Accountability mechanisms are critical to holding the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) responsible for constitutional violations. Upholding the autonomy of federal member states and ensuring their right to manage electoral processes without interference is vital to maintaining the federal balance.
Moreover, international actors must adopt a balanced engagement strategy, shifting their focus from financial interests to impartial support for Somalia’s long-term stability, while strengthening federal institutions with independent judicial and legislative bodies to mediate disputes transparently. A Somali-led approach is equally important, prioritizing initiatives that promote fairness, federalism, and inclusivity, empowering local leadership to drive meaningful reforms. Addressing the human cost of instability is paramount, with aid directed toward meeting the needs of communities rather than advancing political agendas. By adopting these measures, Somalia can chart a path toward a future built on mutual respect, constitutional governance, and shared responsibility among federal and state actors. Failure to implement these reforms risks deepening mistrust, exacerbating polarization, and derailing Somalia’s fragile progress toward lasting peace.
Accountability and Inclusive Dialogue.
To effectively address Somalia’s ongoing federal crisis, accountability must extend not only to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) but also to the international community and its representatives. The FGS has persistently violated constitutional principles, undermining federalism by encroaching on the autonomy of federal member states such as Puntland and Jubaland. Its actions exacerbate divisions and destabilize the nation. Equally troubling is the international community’s lack of meaningful intervention. Furthermore
James Swan, the Acting Special Representative for Somalia and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), exemplifies this failure. His leadership has been marked by superficial efforts that ignore Somalia’s deep-seated governance challenges, as he seems more concerned with preserving his own position than addressing the critical issues facing the country while the unconstitutional actions of the FGS persist. By focusing on maintaining appearances rather than pursuing genuine governance reforms, Swan has enabled the FGS’s unconstitutional overreach and undermined the federal framework critical to Somalia’s future. His unwillingness to challenge Mogadishu’s centralizing agenda and his selective engagement with stakeholders reveal a bias that hinders progress. This negligence is not only disappointing but actively harmful to the prospects of peace and federalism in Somalia.
For trust to be rebuilt and governance challenges effectively addressed, the international community, including Swan, must abandon its passive approach. It must adopt an impartial and balanced stance that respects the principles of federalism and ensures inclusive dialogue among all stakeholders. Without accountability and genuine commitment to reform, the international community risks further entrenching instability and prolonging te suffering of the Somali people.
Empowering Federal States and Strengthening Institutions.
The autonomy of Somalia’s federal member states, including Puntland, Jubaland, and SSC-Khatumo, must be respected and reinforced as a cornerstone of the country’s federal framework. Their constitutional rights to manage electoral processes without interference from Mogadishu are not optional but foundational to preserving the delicate federal balance. Yet, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has continuously sidestepped consultation and collaboration, sidelining federal member states and undermining the principles of federalism. This pattern of unilateralism threatens Somalia’s future by disregarding the very stakeholders whose participation is vital for sustainable governance.
President Hassan and his enablers have consistently prioritized their centralizing agenda over the constitutional principles that bind the federal system, acting as though the federal compact is a suggestion rather than an obligation. Their actions—ranging from imposing controversial electoral reforms to bypassing consensus with regional administrations—demonstrate a troubling disregard for the rule of law and the voices of Somalia’s diverse regions. This authoritarian drift not only jeopardizes federalism but also risks destabilizing the nation by alienating millions of citizens in Puntland, Jubaland, SSC-Khatumo, and beyond.
Somalia cannot afford a leadership that views power consolidation as a substitute for collaborative governance. For Somalia’s future to remain viable, the FGS must abandon its exclusionary tactics and engage in genuine consultation with all federal member states. A government that acts unilaterally and imposes its will, as Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration has repeatedly done, cannot claim to represent the interests of the Somali people. The international community must also recognize that enabling this behavior—whether through silence or selective engagement—only compounds the crisis, deepens mistrust, and fuels the growing divide between Mogadishu and the regions. A reformed and inclusive federal governance model is essential. This requires not just respecting the autonomy of member states but also building mechanisms that ensure no single entity can override the rights and interests of others. Without such safeguards, Somalia’s federal experiment will remain vulnerable to the whims of leaders more interested in consolidating their power than in upholding the principles of mutual respect and constitutional governance.
A Call for Inclusive Engagement and Federal Reform.
The international community must shift from a superficial focus on financial priorities and neglect a more unfair and disorganized policy approach. that genuinely supports Somalia’s long-term stability. Selective interventions that undermine federalism must be avoided, with greater emphasis placed on empowering Somali-led solutions. By supporting local leadership to implement meaningful reforms rooted in fairness, inclusivity, and federalism, governance structures can be strengthened, fostering sustainable development. At the same time, a focused effort is required to address the human cost of political instability. International aid should prioritize the needs of Somali communities over political agendas, ensuring resources reach the most vulnerable populations. This shift is essential to rebuilding trust in governance and mitigating the long-term consequences of instability for ordinary Somali citizens, who often bear the brunt of political crises.
Somalia’s federal system remains the most viable path to sustainable governance and inclusivity. However, its success depends on the commitment of all stakeholders—domestic and international—to uphold the principles of federalism, mutual respect, and shared responsibility. The international community’s current passive approach risks deepening divisions and exacerbating instability. A principled strategy emphasizing accountability, inclusive engagement, and meaningful reform is critical to resolving Somalia’s federal crisis and securing a future of peace and stability.
Conclusion
Somalia’s federal crisis demands urgent and principled action from both the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the international community. Upholding federal principles, fostering genuine dialogue, and ensuring accountability are essential to resolving the nation’s deep-rooted governance challenges. International actors must abandon selective interventions and empower Somali-led solutions that prioritize inclusivity, fairness, and mutual respect. Without these reforms, Somalia’s fragile federal system will remain vulnerable to authoritarianism and instability, jeopardizing the nation’s future.
Only through collaborative and accountable governance can Somalia achieve sustainable peace and progress.
Dayib Sh. Ahmed
Email: [email protected]
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