(CNS): Colorado State University hurricane researchers have revised their initial forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane 2026 season made earlier this year and are now predicting an even quieter one. CSU’s team said the primary factor for reducing the expected number of named storms from 13 to 11 was an increased likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño. The forecast now is for five storms becoming hurricanes with two of them at least a Category 3.
This is below the long-term seasonal average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three of them major hurricanes with a category rating of 3 or higher. El Niño is a recurring climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-normal water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which can increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean, unfavourable for hurricane formation and intensification.
In a press release issued Tuesday, the CSU team said the waters in the western tropical Atlantic are near average, while they are cooler than normal in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Overall, current sea surface temperatures across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic present mixed signals for the hurricane season.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1965, 1987,1997, 2009 and 2015 seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “Our analog seasons all had below-average Atlantic hurricane activity. The relative lack of activity in our analog seasons increases our confidence in a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.”
The team predicts that 2026 hurricane activity will be about 60% of the average from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season. There is also a 26% chance for the Caribbean to see a storm make landfall over the coming six months.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, not an exact measure and researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. “It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Michael Bell from CSU said.
