Since returning to the White House over six weeks ago, President Donald Trump has rapidly and dramatically changed US positions vis-à-vis Russia’s war in Ukraine, much to the chagrin of Kyiv and Washington’s other European allies.
The stunning showdown between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office on Friday, US statements ruling out Ukraine’s entry into the NATO military alliance and the pause of all US military aid to Kyiv this week, among other moves, have been viewed by many as part of Washington’s attempts to cooperate with Moscow and put pressure on Kyiv to accept a ceasefire deal on Russia’s terms.
European leaders are contemplating a united response — including increased support for Ukraine as well as measures to boost national militaries — in the face of Trump’s actions that could put the entire post-1945 security architecture on the continent in jeopardy.
Growing concerns in Japan, South Korea
The dramatic developments are being keenly watched even in Asia, with US allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines increasingly concerned about Trump’s commitment to their security.
Unlike European leaders, however, the governments in Tokyo and Seoul have largely kept quiet out of fear of attracting the attention of a leader upon whom their security and trade largely depend.
Both Japan and South Korea rely heavily on the US for their defense, with over 80,000 troops stationed in both countries.
They can ill afford to entirely reject the US as their immediate neighbors — China, North Korea and Russia — are increasingly militarily powerful and assertive.
Japan and South Korea are looking at the global situation now and they are both asking themselves if they too are about to be abandoned by Washington and “get the Ukraine treatment from [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping,” said Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo.
He pointed out that Tokyo and Seoul have been “frenemies” for a long time due to historical issues.
But, “inadvertently, Trump may have enhanced the solidarity of these two nations as they feel threatened by his erratic diplomacy,” the expert told DW.
Little value in traditional alliances?
Even among conservatives in both countries who supported Trump’s policies before the election, there is growing distaste for his decisions and fear that their own long-held alliances hold little value to Trump.
Yoichi Shimada, a politician with the right-wing Conservative Party, admits he was a Trump supporter before he returned to the White House.
But he said he now has serious reservations about many of Trump’s policies, and expects the US president to soon demand a greater price for deploying US troops in Japan.
“While the traditional understanding has been that these troops are there to advance Washington’s security policies in the region, Trump sees them as a tool to get more money from the host nation,” Shimada said.
“He knows that Japan cannot make security or other deals with China or North Korea, so we have no choice but to agree,” he said. “I expect the demand for Tokyo to pay more to come at any time.”
Signaling a stronger US pivot to Indo-Pacific?
Washington’s latest moves have also sent alarm bells throughout Southeast Asia, where several countries and territories depend on US security promises in their escalating tensions with Beijing.
While some politicians and commentators in the region believe they signal a stronger US pivot towards Asia, they “should not be too optimistic about that prospect,” Khac Giang Nguyen, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told DW.
A number of senior officials in the Trump administration have spent the past few years calling for the US to focus its security capabilities entirely on the Indo-Pacific region.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in Berlin last month that “stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”
Washington, he added, was now focusing on China, which has “the capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.”
What it means for Taiwan
On Tuesday, Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee to become undersecretary of defense for policy, raised the issue of Taiwan while addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee.
He stressed that Washington had important national security interests in Taiwan, even if the island’s status was not “existential” to the United States.
“Losing Taiwan, Taiwan’s fall, would be a disaster for American interests,” Colby said.
He also criticized the territory’s government, saying that it spends “well below” 3% of GDP on defense when “they should be [spending] more like 10%.”
Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island viewed by Beijing as a Chinese province, is a major source of tension between the US and China.
Washington is Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties between the two sides.
And Beijing has vowed to eventually take control of the island, even by force if necessary. Taipei has sought closer security ties with the US since Trump returned to power.
Boosting defense capabilities and cooperation
For many in Southeast Asia, the Trump administration’s apparent support for the Russian point of view, including voting with Moscow at the United Nations, has sent out a clear signal that Washington is currently “more concerned with raw power and not the rules-based international order,” Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, told DW.
Southeast Asian countries should be “very concerned” that the United States might abandon them if it pursues a grand bargain with China, he added.
Despite Trump imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and President Xi retaliating in kind, some analysts in the region suspect that Trump may eventually seek a “big deal” to end US-China tensions, which would leave Southeast Asian states helpless in their disputes with Beijing.
Joshua Espena, a resident fellow at the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, told DW that most countries in the region will pursue “like-minded autonomy.”
For instance, the Philippines, a US treaty ally with an increasingly fractious relationship with China, will strive to keep Washington on board while it fast-tracks the buildup of its own defense capabilities and expands security cooperation with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand.
“This will not be an easy feat,” Espena said, adding that most Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, have domestic political actors who favor appeasement with China, now the world’s second-largest military power.
“At the end of the day, no country can replace the US as a security provider. As such, they will grit their teeth and hope for the best,” Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, told DW.
South Asia a low priority?
South Asia as a region has so far not seemed to be a priority for the Trump administration.
Trump met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month and agreed to boost defense cooperation with New Delhi amid mutual concerns over China’s advancing military capabilities and growing clout in the Indo-Pacific.
But the US administration has so far said little about engaging with others in the region, including Pakistan and the Taliban rulers in Afghanistan.
Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that the Biden administration had already turned away from Pakistan and the country “doesn’t appear to be on Trump’s radar either.”
“The biggest Trump effect for Pakistan is development aid cuts, including for Afghan refugees it is hosting,” she told DW.
On Tuesday, while addressing a joint session of Congress, Trump thanked Pakistan for arresting Mohammad Sharifullah, the person blamed for killing 13 US service members during the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
Trump said Sharifullah was on his way to the United States to face justice.
Hours after Trump’s speech, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said Islamabad “will continue to partner closely with the United States in securing regional peace and stability.”
Azeem Khalid, an international relations expert who specializes in Pakistan-China ties, said despite Trump’s unpredictability, Islamabad can never think about abandoning its partnership with the US.
“Going away from Washington could complicate Pakistan’s security partnerships and regional influence, given the US’s global clout,” he underlined, adding that against this backdrop, Islamabad will likely opt for balancing its ties with Washington and Beijing “to mitigate risks and maximize benefits.”
Julian Ryall from Tokyo, Haroon Janjua from Islamabad and David Hutt contributed to this article.
Edited by: Keith Walker
